Hollywood’s Record 2018 Box Office Masks a Fight for Survival
Superheroes lift American ticket sales to a record, but comedies and stars struggle—and Netflix has overtaken Disney in stock-market value. Kevin Feige explains Marvel’s success.
Despite the challenges facing Hollywood studios, American box-office receipts crossed $6 billion in the first half of the year for the first time in cinema history. Revenue in the second quarter of 2018 rose by 23 per cent compared with the same period last year, reaching a record $3.3 billion.
Last year, box-office revenue fell to its lowest level in a decade. Commentators predicted the end of cinemas and declared streaming companies such as Netflix the victors over Hollywood studios, which were struggling to find a saviour. They appear to have found one in superheroes.
In February, Marvel released its first black superhero film, Black Panther, which reached a record $700 million at the American box office. Two months later, Avengers: Infinity War added approximately $670 million. Together, their takings accounted for 23 per cent of this year’s total. All 18 Marvel films released since Iron Man in 2008 had been profitable at the box office.
Marvel president Kevin Feige told me the secret of that success lay in promoting the superhero characters rather than the actors who embody them.
“Comic-book fans won’t invest their time in going to cinemas if you don’t respect what they want and do justice to the characters. As a comic-book fan myself, that was how I behaved when I was a child.”
Deadpool 2, featuring the Marvel character whose film rights are owned by Fox, collected $363 million, while Pixar’s animated Incredibles 2 took $374 million. Superhero films therefore brought in approximately $2 billion, or one-third of this year’s total box-office receipts.
Comedies struggle
Alongside effects-driven films, comedies used to be an important source of income for Hollywood at the American box office during spring and summer. In recent years, their returns have shrunk to the point where many are no longer profitable.
This year’s comedies, including Blockers, Tag and Game Night, struggled to cover their costs. Even prominent comedy star Amy Schumer failed to draw crowds to I Feel Pretty, which tells young women that beauty lies in who they are rather than how they look.
Schumer, who does not follow Hollywood’s usual pressure to diet and lose weight, said she was proud of her films and their social messages.
“I want girls to come out of the film feeling good about themselves.”
Ironically, the comedy that did make money was Book Club, about four older women whose lives are turned upside down when they read the erotic bestseller Fifty Shades of Grey. It stars Jane Fonda, Diane Keaton, Candice Bergen and Mary Steenburgen.
When I spoke to them, they insisted life was more enjoyable in old age than when they were young.
“I certainly feel better now than at any other time in my life,” said the 72-year-old Bergen, an actress and former model.
Fonda blamed Hollywood for ignoring older audiences who wanted to go to the cinema to see films like this.
“They need to realise that older women are the fastest-growing audience and need entertainment. These films are also important for younger generations who fear getting old. When they watch our film, they realise we live good, enjoyable lives and that getting older isn’t a bad thing.”
Stars lose their pulling power
Since its foundation, Hollywood has relied on stars to entice audiences into cinemas. That weapon is becoming less effective: spectacular effects can now be more impressive than an actor’s fame or performance.
Jennifer Lawrence, one of Hollywood’s biggest stars, failed to attract audiences this year to Red Sparrow, in which she plays a Russian spy. It was her second disappointment in less than a year, following mother!’s collapse at the box office in 2017.
Despite Charlize Theron’s commitment to Tully, for which she gained more than 22 kilograms to play a mother suffering a psychological crisis after the birth of her third child, her fans did not flock to see it.
Theron did not regret what she had given the film and remained proud of it.
“When I get a role, I do everything I can physically and psychologically to give the best portrayal of the character. Otherwise, I don’t accept it. It isn’t fair to a filmmaker if you don’t invest all your energy in helping them realise their vision. That comes naturally to me, and I find it hard even to talk about the process of transforming into a character.”
Horror still pays
Horror films, which usually cost relatively little to make, continue to generate profits. This year’s examples include John Krasinski’s A Quiet Place, about a family living in silence to evade creatures with extraordinary hearing that kill anyone they hear, and Hereditary, starring Australian actress Toni Collette as a woman confronting a terrifying inheritance after her mother’s death.
Collette admitted to me that she did not like horror films. She took this role because it dealt with important family issues from which the horror emerged naturally, rather than forcing terror onto the story.
“That made it more frightening because it makes the horror seem real,” she said, laughing.
Disney dominates
Box-office receipts have not been shared equally among Hollywood’s studios. Approximately 36 per cent went to Disney, leaving the others to divide the rest.
Disney owns Marvel, which produces superhero films; Pixar, which produces animation; and Lucasfilm, which makes Star Wars. It recently agreed to buy Fox, whose films accounted for 11.4 per cent of receipts. That would bring Disney’s combined share close to 48 per cent.
But Disney is not immune to losses. For the first time, a Star Wars film, Solo, failed to turn a profit, prompting the company to shelve other standalone Star Wars projects.
A film needs to earn roughly twice its costs at the box office to be profitable for its studio, because cinemas take half the revenue, or sometimes as much as 70 per cent, as in China. Although Solo collected $370 million worldwide, deducting exhibitors’ 50 per cent share and estimated production and marketing costs of $350 million and $150 million respectively points to a loss of about $315 million.
The fight for survival
Alongside its battle with Netflix, which overtook it in stock-market value last month, Disney faces competition from Warner Bros., owner of DC Comics. Warner is preparing more superhero films, potentially crowding the market and exhausting audiences’ appetite for the genre.
Despite the rise in box-office receipts, Hollywood studios remain in a struggle for survival. What happens when superheroes leave the battlefield because their audiences have grown tired of them? Can the studios withstand streaming services that have spread around the globe? Can cinemas withstand mobile devices?
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